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NEW YORK JETS (6-9) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (10-5)
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LINE: Cleveland by 7.5
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CHEWABLE: Where would the Jets be today had they kept Joe Flacco — who spent the past two and a half seasons wearing their green — and had him around to fill in for the injured Aaron Rodgers? Y’know, instead of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Wilson again and Trevor Siemian? They would be in a playoff spot, that’s where. Possibly contending for the division title.
Since putting down the bag of potato chips and getting off his couch, Flacco has saved the Browns’ season. In just four games, the thought-to-be washed up, almost 39-year old former Super Bowl MVP has performed to the point that, after Buffalo’s Damar Hamlin, he now has the second-shortest odds on FanDuel (+500) for NFL Comeback Player of the Year honours.
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Flacco has averaged 329 passing yards while throwing 10 TD passes and seven picks and currently has the Browns on a three-game winning streak, including a 36-22 pasting of the Texans last week in Houston. He also has developed chemistry with Amari Cooper, who has 374 receiving yards and three TDs in the last two games.
This week presents an entirely new challenge for Flacco and the Cleveland aerial attack. After facing four teams that rank near the bottom of the pass defence charts — Texans (26th), Bears (25th), Jaguars (29th) and Rams (22nd) — the Browns will now oppose a Jets team that has allowed the second-fewest throwing yards in the league. Its list of conquests include C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen and the Giants combo of Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito, who the Jets held to a combined 6-of-14 for -9 yards. In other words, Flacco will come back to earth on Thursday. At least halfway.
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The Browns should be able to have success with ground attacks against the Jets’ 24th-ranked rush defence, except the Browns have a weak running game. Against the Texans last Sunday, they had a total of 30 carries for 54 yards, or 1.8 yards per attempt. Against the Bears the week before that, they ran the ball 18 times for a total of 29 yards (1.6 average), and versus Jacksonville in Week 14 they had 28 carries for 82 yards (2.9 average). Of course, those three teams have a strong run defence, with the Texans ranked sixth, Bears first and Jags 11th. So there is some hope for Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt against Gang Green.
I might be backing the Jets had Zach Wilson not already been ruled out with a concussion. Wilson makes mistakes when pressured, and the combination of New York’s weak offensive line and Cleveland’s elite pass rush would surely cause the 24-year old into committing a few costly errors, but I still have more faith in him than the 32-year old Siemian, who will make his second start for the Jets and 32nd of his career. Last week Siemian completed 27 of 49 pass attempts for 217 yards, with one TD toss and one pick, in a 30-28 win over the Commanders. That was a huge day for him, but Washington does have the 31st-ranked pass defence in the league. The Browns are ranked No. 1 in the category.
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Jets running back Breece Hall was outstanding against the Commanders, with 20 carries for 95 yards and two TDs as well as 12 catches for 96 yards. He won’t be nearly as effective this week, as the Browns also have a Top 10 run defence.
Of their last eight games, the Jets have two wins and scored 30 points in both. In the other six they scored 45, or just over seven points per. Washington outscored the Jets 21-3 in the second half last week.
After three sizeable dogs covered on Christmas Day to turn my 10-3 Week 16 into 10-6, I was a little cautious about backing the favourites in the final Thursday nighter of the season — especially after the line dipped a half point from the 7 at which it opened. But the Jets are playing out the string and are 1-4-1 ATS as visitors, while the Browns are playing for seeding and have the best ATS home record in the NFL at 7-1-0.
TAKING: CLEVELAND -7.5
DAN BILICKI’S PICK: CLEVELAND -7.5
SCORE (O/U 35.5): Browns 17, Jets 7
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