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The lines are from Sportsbook Review and the home teams are in CAPs.
NEW ORLEANS -1 over Jacksonville
Some good fight-back from the Saints but what a terrible drop by Foster Moreau in the clutch.
TAMPA BAY -2.5 over Atlanta
As much as we want the Falcons to be better and more exciting with Bijan Robinson leading the way, this is a team that ranks 26th in DVOA compared to the Bucs in 15th. Desmond Ridder is just not cut out to be a starting QB on a potential contender.
CHICAGO +3 over Las Vegas
Both of these teams are deeply flawed and are likely going with backup QBs. But do you really want to back Aiden O’Connell/Brian Hoyer as a road favourite?
Cleveland -3 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s probably PJ Walker vs. Gardner Minshew, but the real advantage is the Browns defence, which is on an historic pace. The Colts need Jonathan Taylor to get up to speed and that ain’t happening this week.
Detroit +3 over BALTIMORE
After years of suffering, the Lions have built their way up to real Super Bowl contenders and have a 5-1 record straight up and against the spread. Jared Goff has won seven of his past eight road starts and rank second in DVOA behind only San Francisco. The Ravens aren’t far behind, but I think that Aidan Hutchinson should make life miserable for Lamar Jackson in this one.
Buffalo -8.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The only time that the Pats have beaten the Bills since 2019, there were gale-force winds and Mac Jones threw three passes. Buffalo has dominated this rivalry, with only one of their past six wins in that span being by fewer than 12 points.
Washington -2.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants offensive line is starting guys that are literally off their couch and they expect to be able to slow the Commanders, who have one of the better pass rushing units in the league? I don’t think so.
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SEATTLE -7.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals were a nice story while it lasted, but the bloom is off the desert rose. As competitive as they are, the results just aren’t close any more and Seattle will look to bounce back after that close loss to Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh +3 over L.A. RAMS
The Steelers have a fantastic record after a bye under Mike Tomlin, going 12-4. The Rams are dealing with some injuries at running back, which should slow their overall attack.
L.A. Chargers +5.5 over KANSAS CITY
The past four times these teams have met, the games have been decided six points or fewer and each of the Chargers games this season has been a one-score contest. We’ll take the points.
Green Bay -1 over DENVER
We’ve got two teams that have some issues and are both on extra rest. While some sharp money is coming in on the Broncos, it’s hard to see why when they’re fairly open about potentially blowing things up.
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Miami +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
There’s just something that is off about the Eagles this season and that was on display in their loss to the Jets last week. The Dolphins offence is as explosive as they come and Philly’s secondary has been an issue this season.
San Francisco -6.5 over MINNESOTA
It looks like despite their loss last week, the 49ers dodged multiple bullets in terms of injuries. Their offence should be just fine and bounce back in a big way against the Vikings.
Last week: 9-6
This season: 45-45-3
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