NFL WEEK 17 PICKS: Baker Mayfield and the Bucs bake the Saints

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The lines are from Sportsbook Review and the home teams are in CAPs.

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CLEVELAND -7.5 over New York Jets

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The Joe Flacco Show continues to roll on and, remind me again, why exactly the Jets have committed to bringing back their braintrust after this disastrous season?

Detroit +5.5 over DALLAS

Is the difference between these two teams really more than a FG? Both silver and blue squads are set for the playoffs, but have some exploitable issues. The Cowboys return home, where they’ve been dominant, but are carrying some key injuries. The Lions are weaker on the road, but have the weapons to exploit Dallas’ defence. The Cowboys have mostly struggled against winning teams and that could continue here.

BALTIMORE -3.5 over Miami

One trend that has been worth following for a while now is watching a player become the talk of the league and betting MVP favourite, only to watch them fall flat on their face the next week. But, we feel that Lamar Jackson may be immune to this. The Dolphins’ injury report is enough to scare us off of taking the points in this one.

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BUFFALO -13 over New England

The Pats somehow scored a shocking victory against the Bills earlier that season but now it’s time for revenge. Buffalo can’t afford another stumble on their path to the playoffs.

CHICAGO -3 over Atlanta

No team’s defence has improved more over the past five weeks than the Bears’ unit. The Falcons are a pithy 2-5 on the road this season and will have a tough time containing Justin Fields.

HOUSTON -5.5 over Tennessee

Just two weeks ago, the Texans stole a victory in Tennessee with Case Keenum at QB. Now, they’re likely to have C.J. Stroud back and are playing at home in a crucial game for their playoff hopes.

Las Vegas +3.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Raiders offence is among the league’s worst units, but could be getting Josh Jacobs back for this one as a boost. The Colts have problems blocking for Gardner Minshew, which is awful news against this resurgent Raiders defence.

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Carolina +6.5 over JACKSONVILLE

Something stinks in Jacksonville and seeing Trevor Lawrence suffer a new injury seemingly every week doesn’t help. The Jags have hit a slump and can’t find any answers while the Panthers have shown some growth since firing coach Frank Reich.

L.A. Rams -5.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants have nothing left to play for except next season and – shockingly – Tommy DeVito wasn’t the answer at QB. Sean McVay’s team is getting hot at the right time and is a squad that no one will want to see in the playoffs.

Arizona +10.5 over PHILADELPHIA

While the Cardinals certainly have their problems, the Eagles haven’t proven they can put away anyone recently. Philly hasn’t won a game by more than eight points since Week 7 and nearly let the lowly Giants back into the game last week.

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TAMPA BAY -2.5 over New Orleans

With the momentum that Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have right now, how could you possibly bet against them in this loser-leaves-town match? They’ve won four straight and dominated the Saints back in Week 4 by a score of 26-9. Mayfield has thrown eight TDs over his past three games with no INTs and could be a contender for comeback player of the year.

San Francisco -12.5 over WASHINGTON

All you can do is feel sorry for the Commanders in this one. The 49ers are about to take all their frustrations from last week’s loss out in this one.

Pittsburgh +3.5 over SEATTLE

The Steelers look like they’re rolling with Mason Rudolph and is that strangely not bad? Between his decent performance last week and Mike Tomlin’s outstanding record against the spread as an underdog, that’s enough to take the points.

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Cincinnati +7 over KANSAS CITY

The frustration is boiling over in K.C. with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce both having outbursts on the sidelines over the past few weeks. With all of the issues that the Chiefs have shown, it’s too much to spot a touchdown with them, even at home.

DENVER -3.5 over L.A. Chargers

As much as I’d love to bet against the Broncos after benching Russell Wilson this week, the Chargers are circling the drain and have no weapons on offence right now. The Broncos should be able to utilize their running game well in this one.

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MINNESOTA -2 over Green Bay

Over the past five weeks, the Packers pass defence has been the worst in the league – and it wasn’t much better the first 11 weeks of the season, either. To make matters worse, they’ve suspended top CB Jaire Alexander for this game for conduct detrimental to the team. We expect Justin Jefferson to feast in prime time.

Last week: 10-6

This season: 115-117-8

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