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BEST BETS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-6) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-7)
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LINE: Tampa Bay by 1
CHEWABLE: Things are spiraling for the Jaguars, who have dropped three in a row, have their top receiver on IR and will likely now have to play their cross-state rivals without Trevor Lawrence (concussion protocol). Minus Lawrence, C.J. Beathard will be making his first since 2021 as he tries to outduel Baker Mayfield, who is coming off a sensational game against the Packers in which he threw for 381 yards and four TDs … Both teams are among the bottom four when it comes to defending the pass, so the QB matchup gives the Bucs a big edge, especially with Chris Godwin coming off a 155-yard game in which he re-established himself as a complementary threat to Mike Evans … Previously maligned Bucs RB Rachaad White has rushed for more than 80 yards in four straight games … The Jags are 6-2 ATS but it’s difficult to imagine them covering here without Lawrence against a team coming off its best game of the season.
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TAKING: TAMPA BAY -1
SCORE (O/U 42.5): Bucs 30, Jaguars 24
ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-11) at CHICAGO BEARS (5-9)
LINE: Chicago by 4
CHEWABLE: This line is a Christmas present from your favourite sportsbooks. As someone who would like them to draft as high as possible in April if they’re not going to make the playoffs, I regretfully tell you the Bears are much better than they were earlier in the season. The acquisition of Montez Sweat and return to health of key personnel in the secondary have boosted their pass defence while their run defence is No. 1 in the league. Justin Fields is maturing and developing strong chemistry with both D.J Moore and Cole Kmet, while only four teams have more rushing yards. Chicago would be riding a five-game winning streak now if not for late collapses against Detroit and Cleveland … The Cardinals can’t stop the run and generally have an abysmal defence. Their best offensive player is RB James Conner, but he won’t do a lot against the Bears’ ground-stoppers, while Kyler Murray is not his old self after knee surgery.
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TAKING: CHICAGO -4
SCORE (O/U 43): Bears 30, Cardinals 10
BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-3)
LINE: San Francisco by 5
CHEWABLE: Did you know that underdogs are 7-0 SU over the past six weeks on Monday Night Football, including Week 14, when there were two games? According to ESPN Stats & Info, that’s the longest streak of underdogs winning outright in MNF history. It’s also another reason to want to back Baltimore in what is a potential Super Bowl preview. This game also features three of the top four names on the DraftKings MVP odds board – Brock Purdy (-200), Lamar Jackson (+450) and Christian McCaffrey (+1000). The Niners pair are poised to make a much greater impact on the Christmas Day finale than Lamar, who will be rushed by Nick Bosa and Chase Young while not having Keaton Mitchell as an outlet after the exciting rookie RB suffered a season-ending ACL tear … Niners are 10-1 this season when holding opponents under 130 rushing yards, and Mitchell might well have pushed Baltimore over that mark … Expect Purdy to team with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel to scorch the Ravens corners, the weak link of an otherwise exceptional defence, while McCaffrey looks for his fourth 100-yard plus rushing game in his last five outings and do his usual damage catching passes out of the backfield.
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TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO -5
SCORE (O/U 47): Niners 27, Ravens 20
THE REST
CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-6) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7)
LINE: Cincinnati by 2
CHEWABLE: It took until Christmas, but Mike Tomlin is finally turning to Rudolph to guide his punchless offence. After watching Mitch Trubisky the last two games and with Kenny Pickett still another week away, Mason Rudolph will be the Steelers starting QB for just the 11th time since they used a third-round pick to take him in 2018, and the first time since leading them to a 16-16 tie with the Lions on Nov. 14, 2021 … The Steelers have lost three in a row since beating the Bengals 16-10 in Cincinnati, Najee Harris’ best day (15 carries, 99 yards) of the season … The Bengals continue to get strong pitching out of the bullpen from Jake Browning, who has averaged 318 passing yards while tossing five TDs and throwing two picks in three starts … The Bengals have won three straight but will be without their biggest playmaker in Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) … A couple of backups named Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson combined for 157 rushing yards as the Colts pummelled the Steelers 30-13 last week, which means Joe Mixon should dance all around their defence this week, right? Except that in their meeting a few weeks ago the Steelers held the Bengals to 25 yards rushing and Mixon to 16 yards on eight carries … The Bengals haven’t won a division game in four tries this season … The Steelers have won 69 of the 108 meetings in franchise history and 13 of the last 21, and with their season on the line and having been embarrassed the last two home games, the defence will step up.
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TAKING: PITTSBURGH +2
SCORE (O/U 37): Steelers 21, Bengals 20
BUFFALO BILLS (8-6) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-9)
LINE: Buffalo by 12
CHEWABLE: People are talking about the Bills “revamping” their offence after James Cook trampled the Cowboys with 25 carries for 179 yards in the most surprising of last Sunday’s blowouts, but that was on a wet and windy day at Orchard Park, where the conditions were calling for a concentrated ground attack. Against the Chargers’ 30th-ranked pass defence — which last Thursday was torched by rookie Aidan O’Connell for 248 yards and four touchdowns — Josh Allen will reconnect with his receivers on a pleasant night (17C, mix of sun and clouds) in Inglewood … The Chargers are 0-5 ATS as an underdog … Interim head coach Giff Smith will provide a spark and Easton Stick is one game smarter than he was last week, but the Bills are making a desperate dash for a playoff spot and can not afford to let up, even while playing a team that trailed the Raiders 42-0 at the half before losing 63-21.
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TAKING: BUFFALO -12
SCORE (O/U 44): Bills 30, Chargers 17
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-6) at ATLANTA FALCONS (6-8)
LINE: Atlanta by 1
CHEWABLE: Coming off a 17-point victory over the Steelers, the Colts are in a three-way tie for first in the AFC South and now meet up with an opponent they have defeated 15 of 17 times … RB Jonathan Taylor is expected back from a broken thumb and he’ll be facing a Falcons team that allowed Chuba Hubbard 87 rushing yards last week and 102 to Rachaad White the week before … With the return from suspension of DT Grover Stewart a factor, the Colts held the Steelers to 74 rushing yards on 24 carries and should also keep damage done by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to a minimum … The Colts received some good news when their best receiver, Michael Pittman Jr., emerged from concussion protocol to be a full participant at Thursday’s practice … After becoming just the second victim of the Panthers this season in last week’s 9-7 final, the Falcons are going back to QB Taylor Heinicke with what The New York Times simulator says is an 8% chance of making the playoffs. They are 1-5 ATS as a home favourite.
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TAKING: INDIANAPOLIS +1
SCORE (O/U 44.5): Colts 26, Falcons 20
GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-8) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-12)
LINE: Green Bay by 5
CHEWABLE: The Packers were rolling along towards a playoff spot with three straight wins before inexplicably falling to the Giants and Bucs, a couple of teams they should have beaten. Now along comes a third team that falls into the category, and again they are going to be in a battle. Not just because the Panthers should be on a high, coming off their second win of the season, but also because they have the league’s No. 3-ranked pass defence and an assortment of injuries have prevented Green Bay RB Aaron Jones from being himself … Chuba Hubbard of Sherwood Park, Alta., has rushed for 87, 87 and 104 yards his last three games. That trend will continue against a Packers run D that ranks 30th, allowing an average of 138.8 yards per game … Whether Green Bay WR Christian Watson (hamstring) misses his third straight game or not, this one should be decided by a field goal.
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TAKING: CAROLINA +5
SCORE (O/U 37.5): Packers 20, Panthers 17
CLEVELAND BROWNS (9-5) at HOUSTON TEXANS (8-6)
LINE: Cleveland by 2.5
CHEWABLE: It was “Minneapolis Miracle” author Case Keenum, not Davis Mills, who stepped in as the Houston starter for the concussed C.J. Stroud last week, and sure enough, the journeyman QB led the Titans to an overtime win over the Titans. But the No. 1-ranked Browns defence is 18 slots better than Tennessee on the average yards allowed per game chart, and at this point Stroud remains in protocol and is likely to miss another game … The almost-39 year old Joe Flacco is coming off one of the most productive days of his career, throwing for 374 yards while leading the Browns over the Bears 20-17, a game Cleveland trailed by 10 with 12 minutes left. Gunning for his third straight win, Flacco should be able to continue building strong chemistry with Amari Cooper and David Njoku against a Houston pass defence that ranks 25th … The Browns are much better at home (7-1) than the road (2-4) and they are 0-2-0 as a visiting favourite, but they have also won their last three games outright against the Texans and are primed for a fourth.
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TAKING: CLEVELAND -2.5
SCORE (O/U 40.5): Browns 20, Texans 14
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-7) at TENNESSEE TITANS (5-9)
LINE: Seattle by 2.5
CHEWABLE: The Seahawks kept their playoff hopes alive when they snapped a four-game losing streak with an emotional win over the Eagles on Monday and, on a short week and in the wake of Drew Lock’s heroics, they’re about to get No. 1 QB Geno Smith back from a groin injury. The Titans failed to build on their shocking win over Miami when they lost in OT to the Texans last week, and now could be without QB Will Levis, who sprained an ankle last week. With his old job back, Ryan Tannehill can have success if Derrick Henry provides Tennessee with a running attack against Seattle’s 25th-ranked ground stop unit. Problem is, Henry has been incredibly ineffective of late, carrying the ball a total of 33 times for 43 yards in the last two games. He’s either playing through an injury or, with his 30th birthday two weeks away, time could be suddenly catching up to “The King.” Unless he reaches triple digits against the Seahawks, Smith and his impressive array of pass-catchers against the 22nd-ranked pass defence will prevail.
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TAKING: SEATTLE -2.5
SCORE (O/U 41.5): Seahawks 27, Titans 24
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-10) at NEW YORK JETS (5-9)
LINE: N.Y. Jets by 3
CHEWABLE: The Jets will start their fourth different QB this season if Zach Wilson doesn’t emerge from concussion protocol, and Trevor Siemian is unlikely to take advantage of Washington’s No. 32-ranked pass defence because, well, because he’s Trevor Siemian and at Jets training camp he lost a battle with Tim Boyle for the third-string job … Washington’s defence is ranked last overall but does defend the run decently, so Breece Hall will have trouble finding daylight … Despite Jacoby Brissett’s strong relief performance that almost pulled the Commanders to victory against the high-flying Rams last week, Sam Howell will remain the starting QB … While the Jets have the No. 7-ranked defence overall, they’re much better against the pass than the run, where they currently sit 27th. Brian Robinson should have a nice day if he can return from hamstring problems. If not, Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez again could be effective while sharing the duties … Washington is 5-2 ATS as a visiting dog, and I’m not about to lay points with Trevor Siemian.
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TAKING: WASHINGTON +3
SCORE (O/U 37): Commanders 14, Jets 13
DETROIT LIONS (10-4) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-7)
LINE: Detroit by 3
CHEWABLE: Only four teams have surrendered fewer rushing yards than the Vikings, who also have a Top 10 ranking against tight ends. That’s a bad matchup for the Lions, as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are their bread and Sam LaPorta is their butter … RB Ty Chandler was outstanding as the replacement for the injured Alexander Mattison in the Vikings OT loss last week to the Bengals, but Cincy is weak against the run and the Lions are Top 10 … What’s appealing about the home dog here is that other than the dumb turnovers he should have learned from, QB Nick Mullens turned in a strong performance in his first start last week. You also have to like T.J. Hockenson making an impact in his second game against the team that dumped/traded him (he had six catches for 77 yards in the first) and, in his second game back from a long injury layoff, Justin Jefferson should improve on the seven catches for 84 yards he had last week, especially against a Lions secondary that has been painted with a number of burn marks lately … The Lions are 8-4 as a favourite, and 4-1 giving points as a visitor, but the Vikings have won nine of the last 11 meetings outright.
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TAKING: MINNESOTA +3
SCORE (O/U 47): Vikings 28, Lions 24
DALLAS COWBOYS (10-4) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-4)
LINE: Miami by 1
CHEWABLE: Tyreek Hill (ankle) practiced Thursday for the first time this week, which means he likely will play at less than 100%. That makes him still better than about 90% of the receivers in the league, but still erases any advantage the league’s No. 1 passing attack has in a shootout with the Cowboys, who have thrown for the sixth-most yardage … The Dolphins are coming off a 30-0 pasting of the Jets, who are similar to the Cowboys in most defensive rankings, but Miami’s offence was rather quiet, with 213 yards through the air and 77 on the ground … The Cowboys are 7-0 at home, but 3-4 on the road and coming off an embarrassing three-touchdown loss in Buffalo. The secret to beating the Cowboys when they are visitors isn’t much of a secret: In the four defeats they have allowed an average of 192 rushing yards against. Led by Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, the Dolphins have the fourth-best ground attack in the league … I like the Cowboys to bounce back hard, just as they have done after previous road losses, but it won’t be enough against the Fish.
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TAKING: MIAMI -1
SCORE (O/U 50): Dolphins 31, Cowboys 28
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-11) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-7)
LINE: Denver by 6.5
CHEWABLE: After soaring back into contention, the Broncos have taken a serious dip, with only a win against the hapless Chargers to show for their last three games. It’s impossible to say how they will respond to a 42-17 embarrassment in Detroit, but this week Sean Payton could have more reason to scream at Russell Wilson as they go up against a much better defence than the Lions possess. Bill Belichick has the Patriots eighth in total yards allowed and second against the run, while the Broncos offence has slipped to 25th — and their aerial attack is just one notch ahead of the Patriots … Bailey Zappe has thrown four TD passes and two picks in his two starts, and he should find some success against a Denver D that has allowed more yards than every team except the Commanders … Having the most success against the Broncos defence have been running backs and tight ends. Ezekiel Elliott should be able to chew up some turf in the Rockies, especially with swing passes out of the backfield, while the Patriots need Hunter Henry to remain effective through a knee injury that had him limited at practice … The Broncos should find a way, but that spread is too big.
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TAKING: NEW ENGLAND +6.5
SCORE (O/U 34.5): Broncos 13, Patriots 10
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (6-8) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-5)
LINE: Kansas City by 10
CHEWABLE: What do the Raiders do for an encore after scoring a franchise-record 63 points last week? Come crashing back to earth, that’s what. Now playing a team that didn’t quit on its coach, Las Vegas faces a Chiefs defence that is still rated Top 4 in the league, only slightly worse against the run than the pass. The ground will be the route to take with Josh Jacobs likely to return from injury, because Aidan O’Connell will find completing passes a lot tougher against the fifth-ranked Kansas City pass defence than against the 30th-ranked Chargers pass D … He was intercepted twice, but Patrick Mahomes threw for more yards (305) last Sunday in a 27-17 win over the Patriots than he has since Week 7 against the (you guessed it) Chargers … The Raiders are 3-3 and have played some spunk on defence under interim head coach Antonio Pierce … The Chiefs won for the sixth time in a row against the Raiders when they beat them 31-17 but Maxx Crosby was ineffective while battling an injury. He’s healthy now and will make life more difficult for Mahomes … What I like most about the Chiefs this week is the return of RB Isiah Pacheco, who exploded against the Packers before missing the last two games with a shoulder injury. If he would have missed a third game in a row, I would be backing the dogs.
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TAKING: KANSAS CITY -10
SCORE (O/U 41.5): Chiefs 27, Raiders 14
NEW YORK GIANTS (5-9) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-4)
LINE: Philadelphia by 12
CHEWABLE: Just when I was starting to embrace the Tommy DeVito story, the rookie QB gets zero done in a 24-6 loss to the Saints that stopped the Giants’ winning streak at three and effectively squashed any hope Big Blue had of sneaking into the playoffs. Of course, it wasn’t all the fault of “Tommy Cutlets” either, as he was sacked seven times, and with that kind of protection, the Eagles might put him on the dirt once every series of downs … While there’s nothing left on the line for the visitors, the Eagles are trying to salvage a season that has taken a sharp turn south with three straight losses and Jalen Hurts dropping suggestions that there’s a lack of commitment in the room. They need a one-sided victory to remind everyone, including themselves, that they are a factor in the NFC. Expect big games from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against a porous secondary, while D’Andre Swift goes through the 29th-ranked run defence like water through a strainer … The Eagles have won the last four meetings by a combined score of 142-55, and that trend continues in this get-right game.
TAKING: PHILADELPHIA -12
SCORE (O/U 42.5): Eagles 33, Giants 20
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