DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS: Lions and Niners win big; Ravens and Bills have hands full

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HOUSTON TEXANS (11-7) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4)

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LINE: Baltimore by 9.5

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WHY THE TEXANS?: Over the past two weeks C.J. Stroud has excelled in his first win-or-go-home games. He has completed 76.59% (36-of-47) of his  passes with five TD throws and no picks … Against the NFL’s No. 1 ranked defence last week the Texans had three touchdowns and a field goal in their first six possessions. Key was their aggressiveness on first and second downs, with which Stroud was 13-of-15 for 227 yards … While they didn’t do much offensively in their 25-9 season opening loss in Baltimore, they did hold the Ravens to just 265 yards of total offence. That’s what the league’s worst offence (Carolina) averaged per game this season … Texans defence did do a pretty good job on Lamar Jackson, who threw for just 169 yards, his lowest total of the season, and had a relatively quiet rushing day with six carries for 38 yards. They also forced him into two turnovers, a pick and a fumble … Houston has the sixth ranked run defence in the league … The large and explosive Nico Collins will be the best receiver on the field and second isn’t even close. In his last three games Collins has 22 of 24 targets for an average of 124 yards per game. He’s had over 190 yards twice and more than 168 three times … Texans run offence ranked 23rd, but Devin Singletary, who had 13 carries for 66 yards (5.1 average) and a TD against Cleveland, could find success against a Baltimore run defence that ranked 14th … 

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WHY THE RAVENS?: Lamar Jackson is going into the playoffs rested off a bye and high – in his last game Jackson three for over 300 yards (321) and five TDs for only the second time in his career in a 56-19 win over the Dolphins (the first was in Week 1 of 2019, a 59-10 win victory over the Dolphins) … Their defence is again very strong this season, ranking sixth in overall yards and sixth against the pass. Five different players sacked Stroud for losses of 46 yards in his NFL debut, and DC Mike Macdonald will want to stick with a similar script. Roquan Smith was in on 16 tackles while fellow LBs Brandon Stephens and Patrick Queen had 12 and 11 … Ravens had 18 interceptions, tied for third most in league but also the same number of TD passes they allowed … Ravens have the No. 1 ranked run game, but that’s because Jackson rushed for 821 yards. Gus Edwards is their next most dangerous ground threat with 810 yards … Ravens have won 11 of their 13 all-time meetings with Texans, including the last four … John Harbaugh is a great and very experienced coach. In 16 years he has a regular season record of 160-99 (.618).

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CHEWABLE: The overwhelming favourite to win his second MVP award, Jackson has stunk in the playoffs. His career record is 1-3 while completing just 55.88% of his passes (76-of-136) and throwing three TD passes along with five interceptions. An eye-popping note courtesy of Good Morning Football host Kyle Brandt: In those four playoff games Jackson has been able to lead the Ravens to exactly zero points. That’s right, 0-for-60 minutes. Those four quarters have seen him throw for a total of 75 yards (9-of-16) with two picks and an abysmal 28.9 QB rating … Can the Texans body protectors give Stroud enough time to work? Ravens had an 8.6% sack rate, which was second in the league, while Stroud had a 6.8% sack rate which was 22nd … Ravens are better on the road (7-1) than at home (6-3), where they lost to Indianapolis, Cleveland and, in a game where they used many reserves, the Steelers. They are also a mediocre 5-4 ATS at M&T Bank Stadium … Texans are 4-1 ATS as a road dog and 6-2 ATS in games as a ‘dog that Stroud started … Stroud started 10 games against teams that had a winning record this season. He lost the first two and won seven of the next eight … Harbaugh’s playoff record is a less than stunning 11-9, but that’s 19 more post-season games than DeMeco Ryans has coached … A Texans victory would rank as one of the greatest upsets in many years and I can’t see it happening. Lamar’s scrambling will be the difference. But I think Stroud, Collins, a tough defensive front and the rookie head coach make the Ravens work hard for the win.

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TAKING: HOUSTON +9.5

SCORE (O/U 43.5): Ravens 24, Texans 21

GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-8) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-5)

LINE: San Francisco by 9.5

WHY THE PACKERS?: The way he’s played of late, Jordan Love might actually give the Packers the edge in the QB matchup, and that’s against a guy who was the leading MVP candidate for a good chunk of the season. Love was sensational against the Cowboys, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards, three TDs and no turnovers. In his last five games he has averaged 269.4 yards with 12 scoring tosses and zero interceptions …. After dealing with injuries for most of the season, Aaron Jones is very, very healthy. He’s been the main reason Packers have won their last four games, rushing for more than 110 yards in each. Maybe he’ll struggle against the league’s No. 3 ground defence, but against the No. 1 run stoppers (Chicago), Jones had 22 carries for 11 yards and five catches for 30 just two weeks ago … Christian Watson wasn’t a factor in his first game back from hamstring problems (one catch, nine yards) last week but he should be at full speed against the Niners. The lone weakness of the San Fran defence is at the corner back position, which could be exploited by Watson’s speed or the other fine young Green Bay receivers.

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WHY THE NINERS?: Can we at least agree that Christian McCaffrey is the most valuable non-quarterback in the league? Of course we can. Not only did he lead the NFL in rushing yardage by a healthy margin with 1,459 yards (while missing one game) but he also scored 21 touchdowns, with seven via passes … Packers are 28th against the run, so how do they stop CMC? … San Francisco is 10-1 when allowing 100 rushing yards or less … Brock Purdy has won 20 of his 25 career games and three of the losses were in back-to-back-to-back weeks this season leading into the Niners bye … George Kittle has averaged 82 receiving yards in three career games versus the Packers … Even though they were defeated, the Cowboys still racked up 510 yards against the Packers last week, although a lot of it was in garbage time. Niners are going to move the ball with relative ease  … Packers did a decent job of protecting Love, who saw 17 QBs sacked more often than him. Niners were tied for seventh with 48 sacks and, with a hungry Nick Bosa and Chase Young leading the way, will be a difficult challenge for the Green Bay line … 

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CHEWABLE: Only 11 of the Niners 12 wins were by double digits. Only … Jones will be less effective with the Packers playing catch up most of the day … Niners are 5-4 in nine playoff meetings with the Packers … Both QBs will be facing this weekend’s opponent for the first time … The best and flakiest Packers cornerback, Jaire Alexander, did not practice this week and is listed as questionable … As much as I love dogs with such big spreads, I just don’t see how the Packers are going to stop the Niners multi-faceted attack. I also love the over.

TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO -9.5

SCORE (O/U 50.5): Niners 36, Packers 24

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (10-8) at DETROIT LIONS (13-5):

LINE: Detroit by 6.5

WHY THE BUCS?: Tampa destroyed the Eagles 32-9 on WC Weekend but Philadelphia might have been the worst team to enter the playoffs in ever …. Baker Mayfield, who threw for 337 yards and three TDs, can have a lot of success against a Lions pass defence that ranks 27th. Matthew Stafford had 367 yards and two TD passes in a losing cause last week … Mike Evans has fizzled down the stretch, but in four career games versus Detroit he has four TDs and 300 receiving yards. Watch for him on Sunday …

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WHY THE LIONS?: Jared Goff enjoyed playing the Bucs on the road in Week 6. He threw for 353 yards, his season high, while adding a couple of TD passes in the 20-6 victory …. Detroit won that game without any ground success. Craig Reynolds was the Lions leading rusher with 15 yards on 10 carries, while the team produced just 40 yards along the ground. Of course, Jahymr Gibbs did not play that day and David Montgomery went down after just six carries …. Amon-Ra St. Brown had his way, catching 12 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown …. Lions secondary did a good job on Baker Mayfield, holding him to 19-of-37 for 206 yards and an interception … Sam LaPorta is set up for a big day against a Bucs defence that allowed the second most receiving yards (1,074) to tight ends …

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CHEWABLE:  There are numerous reasons the Lions had the second best passing attack and fifth best running game, and a big one is their offensive line … Tampa is good against the run (fifth) but ranks 29th against the pass …Rachaad White has been effective as a running-receiving duel threat, but Detroit’s ground game stoppers rank second, allowing only an average of 88.8 yards per game … Tampa has made quite a charge to get to the divisional round, winning six of its last seven. Alas, the Buc stops here. If you’re betting on which team will score the most points this weekend, the fired up Lions would figure to be a pretty good choice.

TAKING: DETROIT -6.5

SCORE (O/U 48.5): Lions 38, Bucs 28

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-6) at BUFFALO BILLS (12-6)

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LINE: Buffalo by 2.5

WHY THE CHIEFS?: Two words: Patrick and Mahomes. He’s coming off his worst season as a pro but that’s less his fault than it is his slippery-receivers fingered. His career playoff numbers are a 12-3 with a 66.49 completion percentage, 36 TD passes and seven interceptions. He is the best QB in the NFL and the deeper into the season it gets, the better he is  … Chiefs have been underdogs just 10 times with Mahomes as their QB, and they are 8-1-1 ATS in those games  … Chiefs have won the last two playoff clashes with the Bills, both played in Kansas City … Chiefs lost the Week 14 meeting in Kansas City by a score of 20-17, but the outcome probably would have been different if Kadarius Toney lined up correctly … DC Steve Spagnuolo did a job on Josh Allen, limiting him to 23-of-42 for 233 yards …. Isiah Pacheco is a hard runner who is hard to bring down, and he should find daylight against Bills 15th ranked rush defence … Rashee Rice is also impactful and will be a factor against a Buffalo pass defence that ranks seventh but also gave up the seventh most production to slots … Chiefs defence was strong this season, ranking second in total yards against and fourth against the pass. 

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WHY THE BILLS?:  The most productive offensive player in the Week 14 showdown was James Cook, who rushed for 58 yards on 10 carries and put up 83 yards and a touchdown on five catches. Chiefs run defence isn’t so spectacular, ranking 18th … Bills have won three of the last meetings and hold a 29-24-1 edge in the all-time series … The only time the Chiefs didn’t cover as a dog with Mahomes calling the signals was in 2022, a 24-20 Week 6 loss in Buffalo … Bills have won eight of 10 games at Highmark Stadium this year, and the desperate-for-championship Bills Mafia will be a positive factor – unless the idiots among them cost the team a penalty for throwing snowballs at players trying to do their job on the field.

CHEWABLE: The wildcard win was costly for the Bills injury wise. They have six players who weren’t practising as of Wednesday (CB Christian Benford, MLB Terrel Bernard, WR Gabe Davis, P Sam Martin, S Taylor Rapp and LB Baylon Spector) and two more and two more (CB Rasul Douglas, LB Tyrel Dodson) who participated on a limited basis … Bills would especially miss Davis, because the Chiefs struggle against No. 2 receivers and because it seems like just yesterday that he caught eight passes for 201 yards and four TDs against the Chiefs, a divisional playoff game in K.C. two years ago that the home team win in OT … I like Sean McDermott is a great coach, but Andy Reid is something else. Not only has he not had a losing season since taking over the Chiefs in 2013, but his regular season record is 128-51 and he’s 13-7 in the playoffs … This may be hard to believe, but the Bills have only been to one conference championship game in the last 30 years, and in that one they were spanked 38-24 by the Chiefs. Despite the injuries, I think they find a way to make that next step this weekend, but against the defending champs they will keep their fanatical fans nervous to the end. And yeah, I’m betting on Mahomes as a dog.

TAKING: CHIEFS +2.5

SCORE (O/U 45.5): Bills 24, Chiefs 23

DAN BILICKI

LAST WEEK: 5-1

PLAYOFFS: 5-1

REGULAR SEASON: 134–130-8

BEST BETS LAST WEEK: 0-0

BEST BETS SEASON: 8-9-1

DON BRENNAN

LAST WEEK: 3-3

PLAYOFFS: 3-3

SEASON: 132-132-8

BEST BETS LAST WEEK: 0-0

BEST BETS SEASON: 30-24-3

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Home team in CAPS

RAVENS over Texans by 9.5 (43.5)

NINERS over Packers by 9.5 (50.5)

LIONS over Buccaneers by 6.5 (48.5)

BILLS over Chiefs by 2.5 (45.5)

Brennan picks

Texans +9.5

Niners -9.5

Lions -6.5

Chiefs +2.5

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